Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Before 14 December 2021, will the World Trade Organization (WTO) officially agree to grant waivers for intellectual property protections for COVID-19 vaccine technology?
Started
May 14, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 14, 2021 08:01AM UTC
Closed Dec 14, 2021 08:01AM UTC
The Biden administration has announced that it would support waiving intellectual property protections for COVID-19 vaccines (USTR.gov, NPR, Reuters). While consensus among all 164 member states is sought for WTO decisions, an agreement to grant waivers could be made by a vote of three-fourths of member states (WTO, SDG Knowledge Hub).
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 14 December 2021.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | |
| No | 100.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 120 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 189 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 276 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 546 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
