&nbspThe Mack Institute asks

Will Faraday Future, NextEV, or Atieva start taking orders for electric vehicles in 2016?

Started May 17, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 14, 2016 06:00PM UTC

This question was closed as "Yes" with an end date of 14 December, 2016. Lucid Motors, formerly Atieva (Electrek), began taking orders in December 2016 (Lucid Motors, The Verge, Inside EVs). See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated
Faraday Future, NextEV and Atieva are challenging Tesla with new high-end battery-powered electric vehicles. These companies are backed by Chinese technology entrepreneurs or carmakers, have bold visions, have raised significant capital, and are being led by many former Tesla and other Silicon Valley executives (Fortune, Electrek, Green Car Reports). Recommended Questions: Will Tesla Motors deliver more than 80,000 BEVs to customers in calendar year 2016? Will Toyota sell or lease more than 750 Mirai in the US in 2016? Will more than 6,000 new battery electric vehicles be registered in Germany in the third quarter of 2016?
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.00%
No 99.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 145
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187
Number of Forecasts 586
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.415721
2.
-1.358202
3.
-1.344794
4.
-1.287922
5.
-1.213909

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username