Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Will at least 3.5 million people in New Zealand be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 before 30 December 2021?
Closed Nov 20, 2021 10:59AM UTC
The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the NZ Ministry of Health for "second doses administered" (NZ Ministry of Health). Data will be obtained at approximately 5pm ET on 30 December 2021 if the question is still open at that time. If the NZ Ministry of Health changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary.
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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 20 November 2021.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100.00% | |
| No | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 106 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 189 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 436 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 545 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
