Will the US fully evacuate or lose control of its embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan, before 1 December 2021?

Started Jul 16, 2021 05:00PM
Closed Aug 16, 2021 03:00AM (4 years ago)

As US and NATO forces continue their withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Taliban is making gains in the country (NY Times, Military Times, NPR). The safety of the US embassy is a concern (Politico, CNN). A lockdown alone would not count (NPR).

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 15 August 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 100.00%
No 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 91
Average for questions older than 6 months: 182
Number of Forecasts 299
Average for questions older than 6 months: 532
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.576857
2.
-1.43465
3.
-1.37365
4.
-1.22381
5.
-1.18587

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Aug 12, 2021 12:45PM PDT (3 days before close, question was 90% complete)
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