Will the US fully evacuate or lose control of its embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan, before 1 December 2021?
Started
Jul 16, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 16, 2021 03:00AM UTC
Closed Aug 16, 2021 03:00AM UTC
Challenges
As US and NATO forces continue their withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Taliban is making gains in the country (NY Times, Military Times, NPR). The safety of the US embassy is a concern (Politico, CNN). A lockdown alone would not count (NPR).
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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 15 August 2021.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100.00% | |
| No | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 91 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 189 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 299 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 545 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
