Will the US fully evacuate or lose control of its embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan, before 1 December 2021?
Started
Jul 16, 2021 05:00PM
Closed Aug 16, 2021 03:00AM (4 years ago)
Closed Aug 16, 2021 03:00AM (4 years ago)
Challenges
As US and NATO forces continue their withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Taliban is making gains in the country (NY Times, Military Times, NPR). The safety of the US embassy is a concern (Politico, CNN). A lockdown alone would not count (NPR).
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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 15 August 2021.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 100.00% | |
No | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 91 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 182 | |
Number of Forecasts | 299 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 532 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
Most Accurate
Relative Brier Score
Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Aug 12, 2021 12:45PM PDT (3 days before close, question was 90% complete)