When will 600 million people in India have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?

Started Jul 16, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 20, 2021 12:30AM UTC

As the worst of the spring spike in COVID-19 cases in India has subsided, officials are racing to vaccinate Indians before a third wave strikes (Guardian, BBC). The outcome will be determined using data reported by the Indian government (India Ministry of Health and Family Welfare). Click "Vaccination State Data," which opens a daily PDF report, "Cumulative Coverage Report of COVID-19 Vaccination." Navigate to the "India" row and the column titled "1st Dose." Data is reported in Indian notation; six hundred million (600,000,000) in international notation is equivalent to 60 crore (60,00,00,000).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Between 1 September 2021 and 24 September 2021" with a closing date of 19 September 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 1 September 2021 0%
Between 1 September 2021 and 24 September 2021 100%
Between 25 September 2021 and 18 October 2021 0%
Between 19 October 2021 and 11 November 2021 0%
Not before 12 November 2021 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 70
Average for questions older than 6 months: 189
Number of Forecasts 411
Average for questions older than 6 months: 545
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.34664
2.
-0.315668
3.
-0.314967
4.
-0.311498
5.
-0.272014

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username