Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
When will the 14-day average of COVID-19 hospitalized patients in California next reach or exceed 12,000?
Closed Jan 18, 2022 11:00PM UTC
COVID-19 hospitalizations have been increasing in California with the advent of new variants (Guardian, KTLA). The data can be found under the plot titled "COVID-19 hospitalized patients in California" with the "Hospitalized" option selected (COVID19.ca.gov). The 14-day average, which can be accessed by hovering over the plot, was 3,906.6 on 3 August 2021.
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The question closed "Between 16 December 2021 and 31 January 2022" with a closing date of 18 January 2022.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Before 15 September 2021 | 0% | |
| Between 15 September 2021 and 31 October 2021 | 0% | |
| Between 1 November 2021 and 15 December 2021 | 0% | |
| Between 16 December 2021 and 31 January 2022 | 100% | |
| Not before 1 February 2022 | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 89 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 189 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 637 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 546 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
