Chrisp, 024_andrew, belikewater, and David Epstein ask:

Which party will win control of the US House of Representatives in the 2022 midterm elections?

Started Oct 15, 2021 05:00PM
Closed Nov 9, 2022 03:00AM (2 years ago)

All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives are up for election in 2022, with Democrats hoping to maintain control after retaking the House in the 2018 midterm elections (270 to Win). Elections are scheduled for 8 November 2022 (Ballotpedia). If control is dependent upon a runoff election, the suspend date will be extended to the date of the latest relevant runoff. If control is dependent upon a recount, the question will remain suspended and closed as of 8 November 2022 when the outcome is known.

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The question closed "Republican Party" with a closing date of 8 November 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Democratic Party 18%
Republican Party 82%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 696
Average for questions older than 6 months: 180
Number of Forecasts 1887
Average for questions older than 6 months: 526
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.105243
2.
-0.105243
3.
-0.105243
4.
-0.105243
5.
-0.105243

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Oct 15, 2021 10:07AM PDT (389 days before close, question was 0% complete)
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