DrStrangelove asks:
Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces and/or law enforcement of Russia and Ukraine resulting in at least three fatalities before 15 September 2022?
Closed Feb 24, 2022 03:53PM UTC
Reports in the fall of 2021 indicated a build-up of Russian forces near the border of Ukraine amid increased tensions with the West (Politico, REF/RL). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results at least three fatalities (total, not each) for the national military forces and/or law enforcement of either side.
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NOTE 8 November 2021: Cyberattacks would not count.
NOTE 11 January 2022: The fatalities must be the result of the same lethal confrontation to count.
The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 23 February 2022.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
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Yes | 100.00% | |
No | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 264 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 189 | |
Number of Forecasts | 1169 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 546 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |