The Economist asks:
Which political party will win the most seats in the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?
Closed May 05, 2022 07:01AM UTC
The next Northern Ireland Assembly election is scheduled for 5 May 2022 (Economist, Atlantic, Belfast Telegraph, Northern Ireland Act 1998). If the election date is changed, the question's suspend date will be moved to the day before the new election date. If there is a tie for most seats, the question will be resolved in favor of the party with the most first preference votes (e.g., NI Assembly, see Table 5.1).
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The question closed "Sinn Féin" with a closing date of 5 May 2022.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Democratic Unionist Party | 21% | |
Sinn Féin | 79% | |
Another party | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 156 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 189 | |
Number of Forecasts | 239 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 545 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |