The Economist asks:
Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 1 October 2022?
Closed Oct 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
In 2021, the military (aka "Defence Services") of Myanmar detained various government officials and declared a one-year state of emergency under the constitution, later extending their intended grip on power as various opposition groups fight to dislodge it (Economist, Radio Free Asia, Myanmar Times) Per Article 419, the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services "shall have the right to exercise the powers of legislature, executive and judiciary" (Myanmar Constitution). The question would close "Yes" if these powers stop being wholly held by the military.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 October 2022.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 1.07% | |
No | 98.93% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 307 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187 | |
Number of Forecasts | 888 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | worse than average |