Before 4 January 2023, will a United States Supreme Court seat be vacated?

Started Jan 14, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 07, 2022 06:10PM UTC

Speculation abounds as to whether Justice Stephen Breyer may retire in 2022 (NPR, CNN). For the purposes of this question, an announced retirement effective upon the confirmation of a successor would count as a seat being vacated, though an announced retirement effective as of a date after 3 January 2023 would not count (e.g., Supreme Court).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Yes, and a replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 4 January 2023" with a closing date of 7 April 2022.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, and a replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 4 January 2023 99%
Yes, but no replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 4 January 2023 1%
No 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 121
Average for questions older than 6 months: 189
Number of Forecasts 390
Average for questions older than 6 months: 546
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.113806
4.
-0.11071
5.
-0.108956

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username