  The Monkey Cage asks
As of 1 November 2016, how much money will the Center for Responsive Politics report that Donald Trump's campaign committee and outside groups have spent on his campaign?
Started
Jun 21, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 31, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 31, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Challenges
This question was closed as "Between $250 million and $500 million, inclusive" with an end date of 31 October 2016. On 1 November, the Center for Responsive Politics reported that President elect Trump and outside groups had spent $285,570,781.
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Donald Trump is backing off his initial goal of raising $1 billion to spend on the campaign (Bloomberg, Politico, Reuters). Question will be resolved using data from OpenSecrets.org. The "Fundraising Details" table's second row shows "Total Spent"; reference the "Combined" column which totals spending by the campaign committee and outside groups. For more information on Outside Groups, see OpenSecrets.org.
Clarification Issued 11/4/2016: There were some data anomalies in Center for Responsive Politics' website in the days leading up to this question's deadline and a large fluctuation in the "Total Spent - Combined" figure the day the question closed. GJ and Monkey Cage are looking into whether there were errors in the reported data on the resolution date before making a final resolution decision.
Recommended Questions: Will Donald Trump pick one of the former candidates for the Republican nomination as his vice presidential running mate? Who will win the 2016 US presidential election?
Donald Trump is backing off his initial goal of raising $1 billion to spend on the campaign (Bloomberg, Politico, Reuters). Question will be resolved using data from OpenSecrets.org. The "Fundraising Details" table's second row shows "Total Spent"; reference the "Combined" column which totals spending by the campaign committee and outside groups. For more information on Outside Groups, see OpenSecrets.org.
Clarification Issued 11/4/2016: There were some data anomalies in Center for Responsive Politics' website in the days leading up to this question's deadline and a large fluctuation in the "Total Spent - Combined" figure the day the question closed. GJ and Monkey Cage are looking into whether there were errors in the reported data on the resolution date before making a final resolution decision.
Recommended Questions: Will Donald Trump pick one of the former candidates for the Republican nomination as his vice presidential running mate? Who will win the 2016 US presidential election?
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| More than $1 billion | 0% | |
| Less than $250 million | 0% | |
| Between $250 million and $500 million, inclusive | 100% | |
| More than $500 million but less than $750 million | 0% | |
| $750 milion to $1 billion, inclusive | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 174 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 187 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 741 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 542 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
