  The Monkey Cage asks
Will the winner of the popular vote in the US presidential election also win the electoral college?
Started
Jun 21, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 08, 2016 06:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 08, 2016 06:00PM UTC
Challenges
This question was closed as "No" with an end date of 8 November 2016. Donald Trump won the electoral college, while Hillary Clinton won the popular vote (Time, Reuters, NY Times)
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For more information on the the popular vote and the electoral college see: National Archives and Records Administration 1, 2. Four presidents, including George Bush in the 2000 election, have been elected without winning the popular vote (FactCheck.org). Only forecasts made prior to election day will be scored. Recommended Questions: Who will win the 2016 US presidential election? Will an independent or third-party candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the U.S. presidential election?
For more information on the the popular vote and the electoral college see: National Archives and Records Administration 1, 2. Four presidents, including George Bush in the 2000 election, have been elected without winning the popular vote (FactCheck.org). Only forecasts made prior to election day will be scored. Recommended Questions: Who will win the 2016 US presidential election? Will an independent or third-party candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the U.S. presidential election?
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 96.00% | |
| No | 4.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 702 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 187 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 1667 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 542 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
