Will the government of Afghanistan and the Afghan Taliban participate in official talks before 1 March 2017?

Started Jun 21, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 01, 2017 07:59AM UTC

The Taliban's refusal to join talks hosted by the Quadrilateral Coordination Group in May 2016 (Al Jazeera, Reuters) and the appointment of the hard-line Mawlawi Haibatullah Akhundzada to replace Mullah Akhtar Mohammed Mansour have raised doubts about the future of the Afghan peace process (CNN, Newsweek). Recommended Questions: Before 18 October 2016, will the US announce that it is opening a consulate or embassy in Iran? Before 1 July 2016, will South Korea announce that the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system will be deployed on the Korean Peninsula? Will Bahrain, Qatar, or the UAE return an ambassador to Iran before 18 October 2016? This question was closed as a "no" with an end date of 28 February 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 280
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187
Number of Forecasts 1130
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.020011
3.
-0.019833
4.
-0.019586
5.
-0.018953

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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