Balzac and David Epstein ask:
Before 5 August 2022, will Russia detonate a nuclear device outside of Russian territory or airspace?
Started
Mar 04, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 05, 2022 07:01AM UTC
Closed Aug 05, 2022 07:01AM UTC
Challenges
Soon after invading Ukraine, Russia put its nuclear forces on "special alert" (BBC, AP). A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (Mass.gov).
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 5 August 2022.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | |
| No | 100.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 361 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 189 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 1046 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 546 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | worse than average |
