Will either Mir Hossein Mousavi or Mehdi Karroubi stand trial or be released from house arrest before 1 June 2017?

Started Jul 05, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed May 31, 2017 05:00PM UTC

Mousavi and Karroubi ran as opposition candidates in Iran's 2009 presidential election. Both contested the official results, and the two have been under house arrest since 2011, when they called for a demonstration in support of the uprisings that were occurring at the time in Egypt and Tunisia (Al-Monitor 1, Al-Monitor 2). Karroubi recently released an open letter requesting authorities allow him to stand trial (Middle East Monitor, Payvand). Recommended Questions How will Iran rank in the World Economic Forum’s 2016-2017 Global Competitiveness Index? Before 18 October 2016, will Iran's Guardian Council approve legislation which would restrict the use of the death penalty? Will Iran officially lift its ban on either Facebook or Twitter before 1 October 2016?
This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 31 May 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 150
Average for questions older than 6 months: 189
Number of Forecasts 822
Average for questions older than 6 months: 545
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.035455
2.
-0.035316
4.
-0.034461
5.
-0.034135

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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