The Economist asks:
As of 30 September 2022, will the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) rank higher than all other German parties in polling of national parliament voting intention, according to Politico?
Closed Oct 01, 2022 02:00AM UTC
The SPD-led German government faces a number of challenges in 2022, including lifting COVID restrictions, the war in Ukraine, and various domestic matters (Economist, Deutsche Welle, The Local). The outcome will be determined using data for 30 September 2022 as provided in Politico's "Poll of Polls" page for Germany no earlier than 5 October 2022 (Politico Poll of Polls - Germany, select "1 Year" and "Kalman Smooth").
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 30 September 2022.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.36% | |
| No | 98.64% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 175 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 187 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 469 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 542 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
