David Epstein asks:
Between 29 April 2022 and 30 November 2022, will North Korea detonate a nuclear device?
Started
Apr 29, 2022 05:00PM
Closed Dec 1, 2022 08:01AM (2 years ago)
Closed Dec 1, 2022 08:01AM (2 years ago)
After launching an ICBM for the first time since 2017, there are concerns that North Korea may test another nuclear weapon (AP, CNN). North Korea's most recent nuclear detonation was in 2017 (BBC).
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 December 2022.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2.38% | |
| No | 97.62% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 224 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 180 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 1423 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 526 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
Most Accurate
Relative Brier Score
Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Sep 11, 2022 7:57AM PDT (81 days before close, question was 63% complete)