  The Monkey Cage asks
Which presidential candidate will win Pennsylvania?
Started
Jul 15, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 08, 2016 06:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 08, 2016 06:00PM UTC
Challenges
This question was closed with the correct answer 'Donald Trump' with an end date of 8 November 2016. Donald Trump won the state of Pennsylvania on November 8. (NY Times)
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The presidential race in Pennsylvania is likely to be competitive (Yahoo! News, The Atlantic, Washington Post). Recommended Questions: Who will win the 2016 US presidential election? Which presidential candidate will win Ohio? Which presidential candidate will win Michigan?
The presidential race in Pennsylvania is likely to be competitive (Yahoo! News, The Atlantic, Washington Post). Recommended Questions: Who will win the 2016 US presidential election? Which presidential candidate will win Ohio? Which presidential candidate will win Michigan?
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Hillary Clinton | 85% | |
| Donald Trump | 15% | |
| Someone else | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 488 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 187 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 1475 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 542 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
