&nbsp The Monkey Cage asks

Which presidential candidate will win Michigan?

Started Jul 15, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 08, 2016 06:00PM UTC

This question was closed on 'Donald Trump' with an end date of 8 November 2016 (NY Times, International Business Times). See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated
The presidential race in Michigan is likely to be competitive (Yahoo! News, The Atlantic, Washington Post). Recommended Questions: Who will win the 2016 US presidential election? Which presidential candidate will win Ohio? Which presidential candidate will win Pennsylvania?
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Someone else 0%
Hillary Clinton 88%
Donald Trump 12%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 504
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187
Number of Forecasts 1421
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.391924
2.
-1.355986
3.
-1.355791
4.
-1.351116
5.
-1.281606

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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