Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 8 November 2022, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?
Started
Jun 24, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 08, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Closed Nov 08, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
Gas prices are expected to play a major role in 2022 midterm election campaigns (CBS News, Politico, CNN). The question will be suspended on 7 November 2022 and the outcome determined using data as reported by AAA for 8 November 2022 (AAA, see "Today's AAA National Average" graphic).
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The question closed "More than $3.50 but less than $4.00" with a closing date of 8 November 2022.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than $3.00 | 0% | |
| Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive | 2% | |
| More than $3.50 but less than $4.00 | 89% | |
| Between $4.00 and $4.50, inclusive | 8% | |
| More than $4.50 but less than $5.00 | 1% | |
| Between $5.00 and $5.50, inclusive | 0% | |
| More than $5.50 but less than $6.00 | 0% | |
| Between $6.00 and $6.50, inclusive | 0% | |
| More than $6.50 | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 92 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 187 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 433 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 542 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
