Will the spread between US high-yield corporate bonds and US Treasuries reach or exceed 8.50% before 1 December 2022?
Closed Dec 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
As central banks increase interest rates amid recession fears, borrowing costs for "high-yield" bonds (aka junk bonds) could continue to rise (NASDAQ, Yahoo!, Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for "ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread" (FRED). For 29 June 2022, the spread was 5.62%.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 December 2022.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4.18% | |
| No | 95.82% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 68 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 189 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 338 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 546 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
