The Early Warning Project asks
Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Yemen before 1 January 2017?
Started
Jul 19, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 31, 2016 06:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 31, 2016 06:00PM UTC
Challenges
For more information on what constitutes an episode of mass killing, see the Early Warning Project’s Definitions page. The Early Warning Project’s 2015 statistical risk assessments identified Yemen as the 10th country at the greatest risk of an onset of a new episode of state-led mass killing (Early Warning Project). Those forecasts do not include the risk of mass killing by non-state groups, which would also produce a “yes” answer to this question. Violence perpetrated by Saudi Arabia inside Yemen will not count because our definition of mass killing focuses on state and non-state violence perpetrated within a state, not as part of international wars or military interventions (Early Warning Project). This question will be resolved by the Early Warning Project, in consultation with subject matter experts, using publicly available secondary sources. If the project determines that a new episode of mass killing has occurred, relevant evidence will be summarized in a post on EWP's blog.
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This question was closed as a "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. The EWP did not find evidence of a new mass killing episode in Yemen before the end of 2016 (Early Warning Project).
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | |
No | 100.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 125 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187 | |
Number of Forecasts | 531 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |