Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Will an electrical blackout lasting at least one hour and affecting 60 million or more people in the US and/or Canada occur before 1 April 2023?
Closed Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
There are concerns over US vulnerability to potential power outages/blackouts due to energy demand, aging infrastructure, and cyberattacks (ASCE, Council on Foreign Relations). The outcome will be determined using credible open-source reporting. Examples of previous major blackouts affecting the US and/or Canada include The Great Northeast Blackout of 1965 and the Northeast Blackout of 2003 (History.com, BBC). Intentional "rolling blackouts" would not count (Constellation Energy Resources).
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NOTE 19 September 2022: The question is concerned with a single blackout incident like the examples in the question description. For the purposes of this question, consider US territories to be "in the US."
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 April 2023.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 1.08% | |
No | 98.92% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 95 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 189 | |
Number of Forecasts | 327 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 546 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |