Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will an electrical blackout lasting at least one hour and affecting 60 million or more people in the US and/or Canada occur before 1 April 2023?

Started Aug 05, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

There are concerns over US vulnerability to potential power outages/blackouts due to energy demand, aging infrastructure, and cyberattacks (ASCE, Council on Foreign Relations). The outcome will be determined using credible open-source reporting. Examples of previous major blackouts affecting the US and/or Canada include The Great Northeast Blackout of 1965 and the Northeast Blackout of 2003 (History.com, BBC). Intentional "rolling blackouts" would not count (Constellation Energy Resources).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 19 September 2022: The question is concerned with a single blackout incident like the examples in the question description. For the purposes of this question, consider US territories to be "in the US."


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 April 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.08%
No 98.92%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 95
Average for questions older than 6 months: 189
Number of Forecasts 327
Average for questions older than 6 months: 546
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.002589
3.
-0.002589
4.
-0.002586
5.
-0.002557

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username