probahilliby and belikewater ask:
Before 1 February 2023, will there be an attack on a federal facility in the US resulting in at least ten fatalities?
Started
Aug 19, 2022 05:00PM
Closed Feb 1, 2023 08:01AM (2 years ago)
Closed Feb 1, 2023 08:01AM (2 years ago)
Challenges
After the FBI searched former President Trump's Mar-a-Lago home in August 2022, threats against federal law enforcement have increased (NPR, NBC News, CBS News). The fatalities must occur during the question's open period to count.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 February 2023.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2.66% | |
| No | 97.34% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 124 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 181 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 525 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 529 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
Most Accurate
Relative Brier Score
Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Aug 19, 2022 10:00AM PDT (166 days before close, question was 0% complete)