Before 18 October 2016, will there be a confrontation involving Iran's and another country's national military forces that produces at least one fatality in the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, or the Gulf of Oman?
Started
Aug 02, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 17, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 17, 2016 05:00PM UTC
This question was closed on option B) 'No' on 17 October, 2016. There have been no reports of fatal confrontation between Iranian military forces and other national military forces in the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, or the Gulf of Oman during the time frame in question.
For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps (US Institute of Peace, Council on Foreign Relations). Iranian vessels patrolling the Strait of Hormuz have been involved in what the US and others have called a number of risky interactions in recent years (Reuters, United Press International, NY Times, ABC News). For this question, civilians killed inadvertently will be included in the fatality count.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
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Yes | 1.00% | |
No | 99.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 275 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 191 | |
Number of Forecasts | 658 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 550 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | worse than average |