Before 18 October 2016, will there be a confrontation involving Iran's and another country's national military forces that produces at least one fatality in the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, or the Gulf of Oman?

Started Aug 02, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 17, 2016 05:00PM UTC

This question was closed on option B) 'No' on 17 October, 2016. There have been no reports of fatal confrontation between Iranian military forces and other national military forces in the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, or the Gulf of Oman during the time frame in question. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps (US Institute of Peace, Council on Foreign Relations). Iranian vessels patrolling the Strait of Hormuz have been involved in what the US and others have called a number of risky interactions in recent years (Reuters, United Press International, NY Times, ABC News). For this question, civilians killed inadvertently will be included in the fatality count. Recommended Questions Will any disputes over IAEA access to Iranian sites be referred to the Joint Commission before 1 July 2017? Will either Mir Hossein Mousavi or Mehdi Karroubi stand trial or be released from house arrest before 1 June 2017? Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea region involving China's and another country's national military forces or law enforcement personnel before 1 January 2017?
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.00%
No 99.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 275
Average for questions older than 6 months: 189
Number of Forecasts 658
Average for questions older than 6 months: 545
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.000828
2.
-0.000828
3.
-0.000828
4.
-0.000828
5.
-0.000791

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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