Will former Governor Sarah Palin win the general election for Alaska's At Large Congressional District in 2022?
Started
Aug 19, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 09, 2022 03:00AM UTC
Closed Nov 09, 2022 03:00AM UTC
All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives are up for election this November, with Democrats fighting to maintain control of the closely divided House (270 to Win, Ballotpedia). The outcome of the 2022 special election for the At Large House seat is immaterial.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 8 November 2022.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6.88% | |
| No | 93.12% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 83 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 189 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 367 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 545 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
