Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
How many international visitor arrivals to the US will there be in 2023?
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC
International travel to the US is still recovering from the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic (CBS News, PR News Wire). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data for 2023 as first reported by the US International Trade Administration's ADIS/I-94 Visitor Arrivals Monitor (COR) for all of 2023 (Trade.gov). Near the bottom of this page, click the arrow to the right of "1 of 5" for monthly data. In 2021, total US arrivals were 22,100,453, down from nearly 80 million in 2019 (Trade.gov - 2021 Fact Sheet, see Table 1).
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The question closed "More than 60 million but fewer than 70 million" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 50 million | 5% | |
| Between 50 million and 60 million, inclusive | 11% | |
| More than 60 million but fewer than 70 million | 69% | |
| Between 70 million and 80 million, inclusive | 9% | |
| More than 80 million | 6% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 58 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 187 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 279 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 542 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
