Before 1 November 2022, will a snap election be called for the Northern Ireland Assembly?
Started
Oct 04, 2022 05:30PM UTC
Closed Nov 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
Closed Nov 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
Challenges
A new Northern Ireland executive has yet to be formed since election in May 2022, and the UK's Secretary of State for Northern Ireland has said he will have to call a snap election on 28 October 2022 if a new executive is not formed by then (Politico, BelfastLive, Sky News, Northern Ireland Executive).
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 November 2022.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 27.17% | |
| No | 72.83% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 51 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 187 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 192 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 542 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
