Will NASA's Artemis 1 mission be launched successfully before 1 January 2023?
Started
Oct 7, 2022 05:00PM
Closed Nov 16, 2022 06:56AM (2 years ago)
Closed Nov 16, 2022 06:56AM (2 years ago)
Challenges
Tags
The Artemis system is NASA's planned means to return humans to the moon, though its maiden flight has seen delays (NASA - Artemis I, Space.com, NPR). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful core stage separation (NASA - Artemis Core Stage, The Conversation).
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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 15 November 2022.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 75.93% | |
| No | 24.07% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 66 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 181 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 227 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 529 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
Most Accurate
Relative Brier Score
Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Oct 8, 2022 1:14AM PDT (38 days before close, question was 3% complete)