&nbsp The Monkey Cage asks

Will Senator Pat Toomey (R-PA) be re-elected this November?

Started Aug 12, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 08, 2016 06:00PM UTC

This question was closed with the correct answer 'Yes' with an end date of 8 November 2016. Senator Pat Toomey (R - PA) won his bid for reelection on November 8. (NY Times) See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated
Incumbent Senator Pat Toomey is facing Democratic challenger Katie McGinty in a race that, as of 7 August, shows McGinty leading by 2-3 points in the polls. Donald Trump lags behind Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania by several percentage points, leading to worries that Trump may hurt Toomey's chances down-ballot despite Toomey's efforts to distance himself from the presidential candidate (The Inquirer Daily News, Washington Post, Real Clear Politics, NBC News). Recommended Questions Will Senator Rob Portman (R-OH) be re-elected this November? Which presidential candidate will win Pennsylvania? Will Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL) win her 30 August primary race?
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 30.00%
No 70.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 245
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187
Number of Forecasts 731
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.730105
2.
-0.697268
3.
-0.682848
4.
-0.669407
5.
-0.484916

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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