Will the location of the administrative services building in Bakhmut, Ukraine, cease to be under Ukrainian control before 26 January 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War?
Closed Jan 26, 2023 08:01AM UTC
Ukrainian forces are facing heavy fire from Russian troops attempting to capture the city of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region (EuroNews, US News & World Report, BBC). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (ISW). The address of the building (Tsentr Nadannya Administratyvnykh Posluh Mista Bakhmut) is Myru St, 44, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84500, to which you can zoom on the interactive map by clicking the search button on the upper left of the screen and entering the address. The location identified by the interactive map will be used for resolution. For the purposes of this question, "Claimed Russian Control" would not count as ceasing to be under Ukrainian control, but "Assessed Russian Advance" would count as ceasing to be under Ukrainian control.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 26 January 2023.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 0.74% | |
No | 99.26% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 93 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 189 | |
Number of Forecasts | 596 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 545 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |