Dubai Future Experts Candidates ask:

Will there be a new tweet on former President Donald Trump's Twitter account, @realdonaldtrump, before 26 February 2023?

Started Nov 25, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 26, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Elon Musk announced that Trump's Twitter account was reactivated after a poll held on the site, but Trump has thus far said that he has no interest in returning to Twitter (CNBC, Twitter). Retweets would not count, and a tweet that is immediately deleted or removed would count so long as there is credible reporting that the tweet occurred. Claims that a tweet was the result of a hack would be immaterial.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 26 February 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 3.24%
No 96.76%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 154
Average for questions older than 6 months: 189
Number of Forecasts 555
Average for questions older than 6 months: 546
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.335299
2.
-0.319761
3.
-0.305998
4.
-0.29566
5.
-0.281039

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username