Between 9 December 2022 and 9 June 2023, will North Korea detonate a nuclear device?
Started
Dec 9, 2022 06:00PM
Closed Jun 10, 2023 07:01AM (2 years ago)
Closed Jun 10, 2023 07:01AM (2 years ago)
Challenges
Amid an increase in ballistic missile tests in 2022, there are concerns that North Korea may test another nuclear weapon (Vox, Voice of America). North Korea's most recent nuclear detonation was in 2017 (BBC).
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 10 June 2023.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.47% | |
| No | 99.53% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 84 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 180 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 432 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 527 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
Most Accurate
Relative Brier Score
Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Dec 9, 2022 10:00AM PST (183 days before close, question was 0% complete)