Which party's candidate will win the next presidential election in France?
Started
Aug 31, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed May 07, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed May 07, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Challenges
France is scheduled to hold its next presidential election in April 2017, with a possible run-off in May. Incumbent Francois Hollande may run again, but he has not yet committed to doing so (France 24 (3/2/16), France 24 (7/6/16)). Opinion polls so far suggest that at least a few parties' candidates could win (The Telegraph, Wikipedia).
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This question was closed as "none of the above" with an end date of 7 May 2017. Emmanuel Macron, the En Marche candidate, won the French election (Financial Times, Reuters).
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Question clarification
Issued on 05/01/17 01:13pm
If Marie Le Pen wins the French election, the question will resolve on "National Front".
If Marie Le Pen wins the French election, the question will resolve on "National Front".
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
National Front | 24% | |
Socialist Party | 0% | |
Republicans | 0% | |
None of the above | 76% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 1533 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 189 | |
Number of Forecasts | 4440 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 546 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |