The Economist asks:
Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 October 2023?
Started
Dec 30, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
The PRC continues to hold military drills near Taiwan as the island nation extends the term of mandatory military service (Economist, Axios, BBC). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 October 2023.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5.65% | |
| No | 94.35% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 382 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 186 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 932 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 539 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
