Fujitsu asks:

Before 1 March 2023, will Russia either officially announce the formal annexation of additional territory in Ukraine or send uniformed military forces into another country without its government's permission?

Started Jan 18, 2023 10:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

For the purposes of this question, "additional territory" means any Ukrainian territory other than territory in the oblasts of Crimea, Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, or Zaporizhzhia. Forces that are not formally part of the Russian military (e.g., Wagner Group) would not count.

NOTE: Questions in the Fujitsu Hivemind Challenge have been partly crowdsourced through a research project and consequently may have experimental framings.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 18 January 2023: The movement and presence of Russian troops where they were already deployed as of the launch of this question (e.g., Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Nagorno-Karabakh, Ukraine, Transnistria) would not count.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 March 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 2.21%
No 97.79%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 84
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187
Number of Forecasts 150
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.000171
2.
-0.000171
3.
-0.000171
4.
-0.000171
5.
-0.000171

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username