The Economist asks:
What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for August 2023?
Closed Sep 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
The Federal Reserve has indicated that it will continue its monetary policy tightening despite risks to the US labor market (Economist, AP, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2023 and the outcome determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics when first released, expected in September 2023 (BLS).
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The question closed "3.5% or higher, but lower than 4.5%" with a closing date of 1 September 2023.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Lower than 3.5% | 21% | |
| 3.5% or higher, but lower than 4.5% | 77% | |
| 4.5% or higher, but lower than 5.5% | 2% | |
| 5.5% or higher, but lower than 6.5% | 0% | |
| 6.5% or higher, but lower than 7.5% | 0% | |
| 7.5% or higher | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 118 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 186 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 354 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 539 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
