Started
Sep 02, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 08, 2016 06:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 08, 2016 06:00PM UTC
Challenges
This question was closed as "More than 135 Million" with an end date of 8 November 2016. More than 136 million people voted in the 2016 US election (The Cook Political Report, US Elections Project)
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Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump both have historically high unfavorable ratings (Gallup, FiveThirtyEight), which could lead to a large number of eligible voters staying home on election day - or could motivate them to go to the polls to vote against one candidate. The voting eligible population of the US is estimated by PEW to be around 225 million people (Pew Research Center), a turnout of fewer than 113 million would indicate approximately 50% turnout or less while a turnout of more than 135 million would indicate approximately 60% turnout or greater. For historical turnout rates see: United States Election Project. Thanks to alistaircookie and Jean-Pierre for suggesting this question! Recommended Questions Which party's candidate will win the next presidential election in France? Who will win the 2016 US presidential election? Will the winner of the 2016 presidential election win the popular vote by 10 or more percentage points?
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump both have historically high unfavorable ratings (Gallup, FiveThirtyEight), which could lead to a large number of eligible voters staying home on election day - or could motivate them to go to the polls to vote against one candidate. The voting eligible population of the US is estimated by PEW to be around 225 million people (Pew Research Center), a turnout of fewer than 113 million would indicate approximately 50% turnout or less while a turnout of more than 135 million would indicate approximately 60% turnout or greater. For historical turnout rates see: United States Election Project. Thanks to alistaircookie and Jean-Pierre for suggesting this question! Recommended Questions Which party's candidate will win the next presidential election in France? Who will win the 2016 US presidential election? Will the winner of the 2016 presidential election win the popular vote by 10 or more percentage points?
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Less than 113 million | 1% | |
Between 113 million and 135 million, inclusive | 67% | |
More than 135 million | 32% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 314 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 189 | |
Number of Forecasts | 773 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 546 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |