  The Monkey Cage asks
Will the winner of the 2016 presidential election win the popular vote by 10 or more percentage points?
Started
Sep 02, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 08, 2016 06:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 08, 2016 06:00PM UTC
Challenges
This question was closed with the correct answer 'No' with an end date of 8 November 2016. Donald Trump, winner of the 2016 presidential election, did not win the popular vote. (NY Times)
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A popular vote margin of 10 points or greater has not happened since the 1984 presidential election, when Ronald Reagan defeated Walter Mondale by winning 58.8% of the popular vote to Mondale's 40.6%, but some analysts are predicting that this year's presidential election will be a landslide (CNN, NY Times, FiveThirtyEight). Recommended Questions Who will win Austria's upcoming presidential election? Who will win the 2016 US presidential election? How many people will vote in the 2016 presidential election?
A popular vote margin of 10 points or greater has not happened since the 1984 presidential election, when Ronald Reagan defeated Walter Mondale by winning 58.8% of the popular vote to Mondale's 40.6%, but some analysts are predicting that this year's presidential election will be a landslide (CNN, NY Times, FiveThirtyEight). Recommended Questions Who will win Austria's upcoming presidential election? Who will win the 2016 US presidential election? How many people will vote in the 2016 presidential election?
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5.00% | |
| No | 95.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 613 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 187 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 1440 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 542 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
