Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Will Donald Trump be reelected as president of the US in 2024?
Started
Apr 13, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 05, 2024 08:01AM UTC
Closed Nov 05, 2024 08:01AM UTC
Former President Trump has registered to run for reelection in 2024, though he faces several legal obstacles in the near term (NPR, BBC).
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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 5 November 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 38.77% | |
| No | 61.23% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 1492 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 189 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 5903 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 545 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
