Will the peace agreement between Colombia and the FARC win approval in the upcoming national plebiscite?

Started Sep 20, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 02, 2016 05:00PM UTC

This question was closed on option B ('No') with a closing date of 10/2/2016. The plebiscite did not approve the peace agreement ( CNN, BBC, The City Paper, Wall Street Journal). In late August, Colombia and the FARC signed a deal to end the FARC's decades-long armed rebellion (Reuters, BBC). Colombians will now have a chance to vote on the deal in a plebiscite that is scheduled for October 2 (Business Insider). Winning approval requires that a simple majority vote "yes" on the plebiscite question (Reuters) and that the majority represent at least 13% of registered voters (Wall Street Journal, Colombia Calls). President Juan Manuel Santos supports the agreement while his chief rival, former President Alvaro Uribe, is campaigning for its rejection (Washington Post). Recommended Questions Will local elections be held in the city of Donetsk before 1 January 2017? Will the government of Afghanistan and the Afghan Taliban participate in official talks before 1 March 2017? In the upcoming Hungarian referendum, will a majority vote "No," thereby rejecting the European Union's right to set quotas for migrant relocation in Hungary?
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 99.00%
No 1.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 135
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187
Number of Forecasts 230
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.683775
2.
-1.288375
3.
-1.041925
4.
-1.013775

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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