Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Before 11 November 2023, will Fitch, Moody's, and/or S&P announce that Tunisia has defaulted on its international debt?
Closed Nov 11, 2023 08:01AM UTC
International debt payments are coming due for Tunisia amid protracted negotiations with the IMF and general political and economic distress (Africa News, Al Arabiya, Al Jazeera). Fitch, Moody's, and S&P are the "Big Three" global credit rating agencies, which assign ratings on a borrower's likelihood of repaying its debts (Investopedia - Credit Ratings Scale). Restricted and selective defaults would count, as would a technical default (Fitch, see "RD," Credit Risk Monitor - S&P, see "SD," Cbonds - Technical Default). For the purposes of this question, "international debt" means debt denominated in a currency other than Tunisian dinars (e.g., Cbonds - Tunisia Yen Bonds, Cbonds - Tunisia Euro Bonds).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 11 November 2023.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 3.15% | |
No | 96.85% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 31 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 196 | |
Number of Forecasts | 118 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 560 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |