UBS asks:
Between 9 June 2023 and 29 September 2023, will shares of Alphabet (Google) outperform shares of Microsoft?
Closed Sep 29, 2023 07:01AM UTC
As the race to develop artificial intelligence heats up, both Alphabet and Microsoft are vying for position (Observer, NY Post). The question will be suspended on 28 September 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Google Finance (Google Finance - Alphabet, Class A shares, Google Finance - Microsoft). The closing values of each stock for 29 September 2023 will be divided by their respective closing values for 9 June 2023 to determine the performance, or percentage change. The difference in percentage points of each calculation will determine the resolution. In the event of an exact tie, the stock with the greater percentage increase at any point between the close on 9 June 2023 to the close on 29 September 2023 would be deemed the outperformer. In the event that a company splits its shares, the price of shares will be adjusted accordingly (Investopedia - Stock Split).
This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 29 September 2023.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 89.15% | |
No | 10.85% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 82 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187 | |
Number of Forecasts | 381 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |