UBS asks:
How many total federal firearm background checks will be initiated in the US in July 2023 and August 2023?
Closed Sep 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
Firearm sales in the US have fallen from record highs during the peak of the pandemic as some states revise gun control laws (US News & World Report, CNBC, ABC News, AP). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2023 and the outcome determined using data for July 2023 and August 2023 as reported by the FBI once August 2023 data are first available, expected in September 2023 (FBI.gov). In July 2022 and August 2022, the FBI reported a total of 4,922,464 firearm background checks.
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The question closed "Fewer than 4,500,000" with a closing date of 1 September 2023.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 4,500,000 | 90% | |
| Between 4,500,000 and 4,900,000, inclusive | 8% | |
| More than 4,900,000 but fewer than 5,300,000 | 1% | |
| Between 5,300,000 and 5,700,000, inclusive | 0% | |
| More than 5,700,000 but fewer than 6,100,000 | 0% | |
| 6,100,000 or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 48 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 187 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 175 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 542 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
