UBS asks:
What will be the value of China's NBS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for September 2023?
Closed Sep 29, 2023 07:01AM UTC
Weakness in China's manufacturing sector has dimmed hopes of a robust economic recovery in China post "zero COVID" (US News & World Report). A PMI is a measure of trends in different economic sectors, where any value above 50 represents expansion according to a survey of purchasing managers (Investopedia - PMI). The question will be suspended on 28 September 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Trading Economics, expected on or about 29 September 2023 (Trading Economics).
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The question closed "Between 50.0 and 52.0, inclusive" with a closing date of 29 September 2023.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Lower than 46.0 | 2% | |
| Between 46.0 and 48.0, inclusive | 5% | |
| Higher than 48.0 but lower than 50.0 | 44% | |
| Between 50.0 and 52.0, inclusive | 44% | |
| Higher than 52.0 | 5% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 45 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 187 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 145 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 542 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
