Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Will North Korea successfully put a satellite into orbit before 23 September 2023?
Started
Jun 23, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 23, 2023 07:01AM UTC
Closed Sep 23, 2023 07:01AM UTC
In May 2023, North Korea failed in an attempt to launch a spy satellite, but plans to try again (NPR, AP). North Korea has previously put at least two satellites into orbit (38 North). The purpose and operability of a satellite put into orbit is immaterial.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 23 September 2023.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.31% | |
| No | 99.69% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 89 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 187 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 263 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 542 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
