Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
How many total travelers will the US Transportation Security Agency (TSA) screen in the first week (1st - 7th) of August 2023?
Started
Jul 18, 2023 10:00AM UTC
Closed Aug 07, 2023 07:01AM UTC
Closed Aug 07, 2023 07:01AM UTC
While total air passenger traffic has recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic, the industry is struggling to keep up with demand (CNBC, USA Today). The outcome will be determined using "TSA checkpoint travel numbers" as reported by the TSA (TSA).
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The question closed "More than 17.4 million but fewer than 18.2 million" with a closing date of 8 August 2023.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 16.6 million | 2% | |
| Between 16.6 million and 17.4 million, inclusive | 6% | |
| More than 17.4 million but fewer than 18.2 million | 61% | |
| Between 18.2 million and 19.0 million, inclusive | 26% | |
| More than 19.0 million but fewer than 19.8 million | 3% | |
| 19.8 million or more | 2% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 58 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 186 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 167 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 539 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
