georgekegler asks:
Who will win the next Russian presidential election?
Started
Jul 28, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 17, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 17, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Challenges
The next presidential election in Russia under current law is scheduled for 17 March 2024 (Moscow Times, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, inews).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Vladimir Putin, who will win with 80% or more of the votes cast" with a closing date of 17 March 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Vladimir Putin, who will win with 80% or more of the votes cast | 64% | |
| Vladimir Putin, who will win with less than 80% of the votes cast | 34% | |
| Someone else | 1% | |
| No election will be held before 1 June 2024 | 1% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 157 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 187 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 545 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 542 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
