Foxes ask:

When will a major scientific journal publish a peer-reviewed article confirming that the material LK-99 is a room-temperature superconductor working at ambient pressure?

Started Aug 4, 2023 05:00PM
Closed Jan 1, 2025 08:01AM (2 months ago)

In late July 2023, Korean scientists published preprints of two academic papers claiming to have synthesized a room-temperature superconductor working at ambient pressure, named LK-99 (arXiv, Science.org, Phys.org). The means by which the LK-99 is either doped or undoped is immaterial (Halbleiter.org). "Superconductor" means a material that 1) has no electrical resistance and 2) does not allow magnetic fields to penetrate it, which is called the Meissner effect (Live Science, Britannica - Meissner effect). A finding of negligible resistance consistent with findings for other established superconductors would count. For the purposes of this question, "major scientific journal" is any journal with a Scimago Journal & Country Rank (SJR) greater than 1.00 as of the publication of the article (SJR, Daemen.edu).

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The question closed "Not before 1 January 2025" with a closing date of 1 January 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 1 January 2024 0%
Between 1 January 2024 and 30 June 2024 0%
Between 1 July 2024 and 31 December 2024 0%
Not before 1 January 2025 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 85
Average for questions older than 6 months: 182
Number of Forecasts 355
Average for questions older than 6 months: 532
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.0006
2.
-0.000537
3.
-0.000532
5.
-0.000398

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Aug 4, 2023 10:23AM PDT (516 days before close, question was 0% complete)
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